December 20, 2024
Bashar al-Assad’s grip on Syria and the 13-year civil war there would not have been possible without the support of Russia and Iran’s terror proxy Hezbollah. But as Russia turned its attention toward its unprovoked invasion of Ukraine and Hezbollah directed more firepower toward Israel, a coalition of Syrian rebel forces saw an opportunity to oust Assad and seized it.
Though the collapse of the Assad regime, a government whose actions led to the death of as many as 620,000 of its own people, was rightfully a cause for celebration, the question remains: with the common enemy gone, will Syria’s alliance of disparate rebel groups be able to ensure prosperity and peaceful coexistence in Syria and the surrounding region?
We asked experts from AJC’s Center for a New Middle East in Washington, D.C., AJC Jerusalem, and AJC Abu Dhabi to share what they see from their vantage points.
View from Washington
Washington is watching developments in Syria closely. The U.S. currently has around 2,000 soldiers stationed in Syria, mostly in the northeast and near the country's border with Iraq and Jordan as part of ongoing anti-ISIS efforts.
The Biden Administration’s view: Speaking at a press conference in Jordan late last week, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken outlined what he and America’s Arab allies expect from the new government in Syria.
“We agreed that: the transition process should be Syrian-led and Syrian-owned, and produce an inclusive and representative government; the rights of all Syrians – including minorities and women – should be respected; humanitarian aid should be able to reach people who need it; state institutions should deliver essential services to the Syrian people; Syria should not be used as base for terrorist groups or others who threaten Syria’s people, its neighbors, or the world; chemical weapons stockpiles should be secured and safely destroyed; Syria should have peaceful relations with its neighbors; relevant organizations should have access to facilities that can help determine the fate of missing Syrians and foreign nationals and eventually hold abusers accountable.”
The forces at play: While there is a desire to be optimistic about the future of Syria, the reality is far more problematic and concerning. Syria is a diverse county of about 23 million people with decades of sectarian strife. Sunni Arabs make up about two-thirds of the population with groups like Alawites, Kurds, Christians, and Druze making up the rest.
The leaders everyone is watching: The leader of the rebel group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), Ahmed al-Shara, also known as Abu Mohammad al-Julani, rose to prominence through his involvement in Jihadi groups like Al Qaeda and ISIS. HTS is an evolution of al-Qaeda’s Jabhat al-Nusrah force — a Syrian rebel group notorious for its brutal tactics during the Syrian Civil War. HTS is designated a terror entity by the United Nations, the U.S., the European Union, and the United Kingdom.
While he is currently portraying himself as a pragmatic and thoughtful leader – one who is not a threat to the West or Israel and one who will include all segments of Syria society in the future of the country – it is far too early to know how sincere his comments are. While openly engaging with HTS, Washington has been clear that it will judge the new government in Syria based on actions and not statements.
What’s at stake: Ahmed al-Shara's interest in building international legitimacy rests in his desire to lift sanctions on Syria. Currently, there are millions of dollars in frozen Syrian assets sitting in foreign banks, including $112 million in Switzerland, 163 million pounds in the United Kingdom, and $60 billion in Lebanon.
Expanding Turkey’s influence? AJC is also keeping a very close eye on how the rise of HTS will empower Turkey in the Middle East. Turkey is a major supporter of HTS, and many are now questioning if President Tayyip Erdoğan will use HTS as a tool to expand Turkey’s sphere of influence in the region. Additionally, Turkey sees U.S Kurdish allies in Syria, the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), as an extension of the terror organization the Kurdistan Workers' Party, a claim denied by the SDF and the U.S. While skirmishes have already broken out between the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army and SDF forces, both the U.S. and Turkey have been able to advance short term cease-fires.
What it means for Jordan: AJC is also carefully monitoring how the rise of the HTS in Syria will impact Jordan. There are fears that the success of HTS may empower extremists in Jordan to rise up against the current monarchy - an action that would have dire consequences for American and Israeli interests in the Middle East.
View from Jerusalem
To prevent terror groups from commandeering former Syrian air defense sites, chemical weapons stockpiles, and missile warehouses along Syria’s Mediterranean coast, Israel has conducted more than 500 targeted airstrikes since the collapse of the Assad regime.
Israel Defense Forces also continue to protect the buffer zone between the two countries, including on the Syrian side of the strategic Mount Hermon, the highest mountain peak in the region.
Déjà vu for Israel: Israel has seen this before when reformers overthrew the Iranian regime during the 1979 Islamic Revolution. Here, it appears young jihadis are selling a narrative of reformed leadership. Al-Shara is no longer wearing a military uniform, and he has shortened his beard. His public interviews soothe Western ears, especially in contrast to Assad. But there are examples of cracks in that façade.
What Syria’s Druze minority think: Druze leaders from the Syrian village of Hader are already asking to be a part of the Israeli Golan rather than live under the new Syrian government. Rebels have already raided their village and seized their weapons. They fear they are witnessing the seeds of an Islamist state and believe that their community is in danger.
Iran’s failed investment: The good news is that a key fixture of the pro-Iranian axis has collapsed. Syria served as Iran’s pipeline for smuggling weapons to and from Hezbollah and offered fertile ground for various Iranian forces to build infrastructure-bases and operation hubs. Iran invested billions of dollars and thousands of lives to support Assad’s regime - long-time investments that appear to have failed. Iran’s plan to encircle Israel with proxies based in Gaza, Lebanon, and Syria seems to have collapsed at this point in time, and the Iranian regime now faces one of its weakest moments.
What It means for Israeli security: Many of the various rebel groups (more on that below) are hostile toward Israel. While Israeli officials have declared that Israel has no intention of intervening in Syria’s internal affairs, there are red lines that Israel will not allow to be crossed for the sake of regional stability.
For example, Israel will not tolerate rebels operating on its shared border with Syria and posing a direct threat to nearby Israeli communities. The Jewish state will not tolerate unconventional weapons falling into the hands of Syrian rebel forces nor Iranian attempts to retrieve strategic arms such as ballistic missiles and aircraft still in Syria. It also expects any new Syrian government to uphold the 1974 truce agreement between Israel and Syria.
View from Abu Dhabi
The collapse of Assad’s regime is the most significant change in Arab politics since the fall of Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak in early 2011. But those who hope for a reprise of the Egyptian army’s overthrow of the Muslim Brotherhood-led government only two years later are likely to be disappointed. Syria really has no alternative power center comparable to the role of the Egyptian army after Mubarak.
It’s important to understand the actors in Syria and their various backstories in the region.
While Hayat Tahrir al-Sham is the rebel group leading the anti-regime rebel coalition, there are other rebel groups as well, including Ahrar al-Sham, which wants an Islamic state in Syria; Al-Jabha al-Wataniya lil-Tahrir, uniting 11 factions from the formerly U.S.-backed Free Syrian Army; Syrian National Army, the continuation of the Free Syrian Army sponsored by Turkey that has been fighting against Kurdish groups in Syria’s northeastern region; and Syrian Democratic Forces, the United States’ Kurdish leading partner in the fight against the Islamic State.
Turkey is the principal backer of HTS. The extent to which HTS has split from radical jihadi groups will become more apparent depending on how they actually treat minorities under their control and whether they indicate an interest in attacking Israel once they consolidate power in Syria.
Iran’s non-response: Meanwhile, Iran has been largely quiet. Reportedly, pro-Iranian militia forces in Iraq refused orders from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) to enter Syria, sensing that the battle was already lost, and there are reports of Hezbollah units trying to flee Syria into Lebanon. This development is yet another indication that the Iranian-led regional order built up over the past twenty years is collapsing rapidly. It is all part of the transformational chain reaction to the October 7 Hamas invasion of Israel and Israel’s stunningly successful counterattack, with many more ripple effects still to come.
Muslim Brotherhood movements: It is not just the Iranian proxy network that is being upended, but also the Saudi-led Arab effort to stabilize the region by halting the spread of Muslim Brotherhood-led movements. A few days before the collapse of the Assad regime, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman visited Abu Dhabi and met UAE President Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed on what was termed a “private visit,” but which was almost certainly largely about what to do about Syria.
Emirati Presidential Adviser and former Minister of State for Foreign Affairs Dr. Anwar Gargash has since issued a statement noting that the UAE and Saudi Arabia had tried to work with Assad to settle Syria’s internal conflict, but Al Assad did not listen.
