December 11, 2024
Update: After years of relative stalemate, the Syrian Civil War erupted in recent weeks, leading to the downfall of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, whose family has ruled the country for over 50 years. In a lightning operation, an Islamist rebel group swiftly recaptured Aleppo, Syria's second-largest city, in late November, leading to a domino effect and the eventual overthrow of the Assad regime on Dec. 7.
This monumental shift in Syria unfolds against the backdrop of Israel’s ongoing defensive war against Iran and its terror proxies, Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza.
However, the collapse of the Assad regime is a double-edged sword for Israel. While it is a setback for Iran’s regional influence by eliminating a key ally in its "Axis of Resistance," Iran still remains a global threat to Israel and Jewish communities. It also risks destabilizing Israel’s northern border. A power vacuum could empower radical Islamist groups or hostile actors, heightening threats to Israel’s security and regional stability.
Addressing this, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu hailed the fall of Bashar al-Assad's regime in Syria as a "historic day for the Middle East," attributing it to Israeli actions against Hezbollah and Iran, but warned it is "fraught with significant dangers."
Here is what to know about the situation in Syria and why it matters for Israel and the United States.
Who are the rebels that overthrew the Assad regime?
The rebel offensive that led to the overthrow of the Assad regime is primarily being led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), an Islamist terrorist group operating in Syria. It was formed in 2017 as a rebranding of Jabhat al-Nusra, the Syrian branch of al-Qaeda, though HTS claims to have severed ties with al-Qaeda. HTS seeks to establish a governance model based on its interpretation of Islamic law and controls much of northwestern Syria, including parts of Idlib Province near the border with Turkey. HTS is considered a terrorist organization by the United States due to its ties with al-Qaeda.
HTS is led by Abu Mohammed al-Golani. Al-Golani, whose real name is Ahmed al-Sharaa, was born in an upscale Damascus neighborhood and was drawn to radical Islam after the 9/11 attacks carried out by Osama Bin Laden and al-Qaeda. Al-Golani says his nom de guerre is a reference to his family's roots in the Golan Heights, claiming that his grandfather had been forced to flee from there after Israel gained control of the strategic region during the 1967 Six-Day War.
Following the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq in 2003, al-Golani left Syria and joined al-Qaeda in Iraq, where he was subsequently detained for five years. When the uprising against Assad's rule began in March 2011, al-Golani returned home and founded the Al-Nusra Front, Syria's branch of al-Qaeda.
In addition to HTS, several other rebel groups are also active in Syria, with the U.S.-backed Kurdish forces in the east, Druze rebel groups in the country's south near Jordan and Israel as well as the Free Syrian Army.
Why is this happening now?
Recent rebel offensives against the Assad regime in Syria reflect a convergence of regional instability and shifting geopolitical priorities. For over a decade, the Assad regime relied heavily on allies like Russia, Iran, and Hezbollah to maintain power, with those entities’ military support enabling significant victories against the rebels, such as the recapture of Aleppo in 2016.
However, these allies are now grappling with their own wars. Russia remains bogged down in its unlawful war against Ukraine, diverting resources and attention from Syria. Meanwhile, Iran and Hezbollah have been attacking Israel since the October 7 Hamas massacre in Israel. In response, Israel has intensified its military actions against Hezbollah, targeting Hezbollah’s leadership and infrastructure, degrading its operational capacity, and conducting airstrikes on Iranian arms transfers in Syria. Iran has also launched two direct attacks on Israel in April and October 2024, to which Israel has responded. This situation has left Assad with diminished external support and weakened defenses.
The resulting power vacuum has emboldened Syrian rebel factions, who view Assad’s weakened position as an opportunity to regain ground and influence. Their offensives are not only aimed at challenging Assad’s authority but also reshaping Syria’s fractured political landscape.
Why does the situation in Syria matter to Israel?
The civil war in Syria has long presented a complex challenge for Israel, intertwining historical conflicts, territorial disputes, and evolving security threats. Syria has officially been at war with Israel since the Jewish state’s founding in 1948. A critical flashpoint in that conflict remains the Golan Heights, a strategic plateau Israel captured during the 1967 Six-Day War. While Israel formally annexed the Golan Heights in 1981, a move that the United States recognized in 2019, much of the international community, including Syria, continues to consider the territory part of Syria. This longstanding dispute over the Golan Heights remains a persistent source of tension between Israel and Syria.
The Assad regime’s alliance with Iran and its terror proxy Hezbollah directly impacts Israel’s national security. Syria serves as a strategic corridor for Iranian influence, enabling weapons transfers to Hezbollah and hosting Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) operations. This positions Syria as a critical node in Iran’s “Axis of Resistance,” aimed at countering Israel and Western allies in the region.
What actions is Israel taking to defend itself?
The situation between Israel and the Syrian government has long been shaped by the 1974 Separation of Forces Agreement, brokered by the U.S. after the 1973 Yom Kippur War, it aimed to stabilize tensions and prevent future hostilities. It established a ceasefire, required both sides to withdraw forces from conflict zones, and created a United Nations-supervised buffer zone on the Golan Heights, monitored by the United Nations Disengagement Observer Force (UNDOF). Both parties also agreed to limit military forces near the buffer zone.
With the fall of the Syrian government and desertion by the Syrian military, the Israeli military announced on Dec. 7 that it had deployed troops to the buffer zone in the Golan Heights for the first time since the 1974 Separation of Forces Agreement, citing precautions against potential chaos following the fall of the Assad regime. While emphasizing that it would not intervene in Syria's internal events, the IDF stated the deployment is temporary but could be extended depending on developments.
Over a 48-hour period following the Assad regime's collapse, the IDF conducted a massive pre-emptive campaign in Syria, dubbed “Arrow of Bashan,” which targeted and significantly diminished the former Assad regime's strategic military assets. The operation aimed to prevent advanced weaponry from falling into hostile hands following the regime’s recent collapse.
The IDF reported striking over 350 strategic targets, including airbases, weapon depots, chemical weapons sites, and naval vessels, across multiple locations in Syria, such as Damascus, Homs, Tartus, Latakia, and Palmyra. This destroyed an estimated 70-80% of Syria's former strategic military capabilities. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated, “We have no intention of interfering in the internal affairs of Syria, but we certainly do intend to do what is necessary to ensure our security.”
Israel’s concerns stem from the potential for these weapons to empower groups like Hezbollah or jihadist elements. Netanyahu warned the emerging Syrian regime: “If this regime allows Iran to reestablish itself in Syria, or allows the transfer of Iranian weapons…we will respond forcefully and exact a heavy price.”
What does the overthrow of the Assad regime mean for Iran and its terror proxies?
It is no question that the fall of the Assad regime is a significant setback to Iran's regional strategy its war against Israel. The collapse of the Syrian government severs its primary Arab ally and key member of the "Axis of Resistance" that includes Hezbollah, Hamas, pro-Iranian Iraqi Shi’a militias. Notably, Syria serves as a critical conduit for Iran's influence, allowing for the transfer of weapons and support to Hezbollah in Lebanon as well as to Palestinian terror groups such as Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad. Without Assad, Iran now faces logistical hurdles, reduced strategic depth, and a weakened ability to coordinate with its allies. This could leave Hezbollah isolated, limit Iran’s capacity to confront adversaries like Israel, and embolden regional rivals such as Saudi Arabia and Turkey.
Despite the setback, Iran and its terror proxies remain committed to Israel’s destruction. While it loses a key ally in its war against Israel, Iran’s global threat to Israel and Jewish community remains. From its regional ambitions, pursuit of nuclear weapons, and network of terror proxies, Iran will continue to work to destabilize the Middle East and pose a threat to global stability.
Who are the key players in Syria?
As a result of the ongoing civil war, the country has largely been divided into different spheres of influence.
The Syrian government:
Before the launch of the new rebel offensive, the Syrian government, led by President Bashar al-Assad, controlled most of western Syria, including the capital, Damascus, and major cities like Homs, Hama, and Latakia. These areas were supported by Russia, Iran, and Hezbollah.
Syrian rebels:
The northwest, primarily Idlib Province and parts of Aleppo, is under the control of rebel factions, particularly Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), alongside some Turkish-backed groups. These areas experience regular airstrikes by the Syrian government and Russia.
Kurdish forces:
In the northeast and parts of eastern Syria, the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), dominated by Kurdish militias, hold sway. This region includes oil-rich areas like Deir ez-Zor and Hasakah. U.S. forces are based in these areas and provide support to the SDF to counter the Islamic State.
Russia: Syria hosts Russia’s only naval base outside the former Soviet Union, located in Tartus on the Mediterranean coast, and an airbase in Latakia. Russia provides military, political, and diplomatic support to ensure the Assad regime's survival.
Iran/Hezbollah:
Iran and Hezbollah are deeply involved in Syria, supporting President Bashar al-Assad through military aid, strategic bases, particularly near Damascus, and proxy fighters to maintain regional influence and counter Israel. Iran provides funding, weapons, and IRGC personnel, while Hezbollah operates fighters and bases near the Israeli border, using Syria as a corridor for advanced arms transfers.
Turkish-occupied areas:
Northern border zones are controlled by Turkish-backed forces after military incursions targeting Kurdish groups. Turkey maintains a presence to prevent Kurdish autonomy near its border.
The United States:
The U.S. has approximately 900 soldiers in Syria, primarily in the northeast and southeast regions. The majority are stationed to support the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in combating the remnants of the Islamic State and to prevent a resurgence of the group. A smaller contingent operates out of the al-Tanf garrison in the southeast, along a strategic corridor used by the Islamic State and Iranian-backed militias from Iraq.
The Islamic State:
Though largely defeated territorially, Islamic State cells operate in desert areas, particularly in central and eastern Syria, conducting insurgent activities against all factions involved in Syria.
