October 10, 2025
After more than two years of war following Hamas’ October 7 massacre in Israel and the capture of 251 hostages, the U.S.-brokered deal between Israel and Hamas marks a pivotal moment for Israel and the wider Middle East.
According to experts from AJC’s Center for a New Middle East and across the globe, the first phase of President Trump’s 20-Point Peace Plan is the first step in a potential major shift in the region, with a tangible convergence among Israeli strategic goals, Arab regional interests, and U.S. political will. Whether that alignment can be sustained to see through the additional phases of the deal remains a central question. Read below to see how our experts view the 20-point plan, and the unique role that the global community can play in ensuring a brighter future for Israelis, Palestinians, and the region.
5 Quick Top-Line Takeaways:
- Hamas’ isolation is now near-total—but disarmament remains the central challenge. A major regional shift has occurred: Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the UAE, Jordan, Morocco, and even Qatar and Turkey now agree Hamas must release hostages, disarm, and relinquish control of Gaza. This consensus marks a historic turning point—these nations are now largely united against Hamas. Every source stresses that Hamas’ regional isolation is politically devastating but militarily incomplete. Hamas has agreed to release hostages (living and dead) but not to give up weapons or control. Whether this next step can be achieved will determine the deal’s success.
- President Trump’s unconventional approach created new diplomatic realities and forced Israel and key Arab states to align in new ways. The 20-Point Plan represents the most credible framework to date for advancing Israeli-Arab peace, creating new opportunities for regional engagement, and countering Hamas’ ideology through a united alliance of Israel and Arab nations committed to peace, security, and prosperity.
- Gaza’s post-war governance remains unresolved—and could be a make-or-break issue. The 20-Point Plan envisions an international mechanism with Palestinian participation, but the difficulty will be in ensuring that Hamas actually agrees not to have any role in the governance of Gaza, directly, indirectly, or in any form.
- This is the beginning of a long process. This is not the end of the road; it is only the beginning. Disarming and dismantling Hamas, establishing a new system of governance in Gaza, advancing a renewed political process, and deepening normalization between Israel and the Arab world are monumental challenges. Success demands steadfast commitment from the United States, Israel, Arab and Muslim nations, and the wider international community.
- Civil society and private sector engagement will be critical to success. To succeed, diplomacy must be paired with civil society engagement and economic cooperation to build trust, counter radicalization, and deliver tangible benefits to citizens.
Full Analysis:
Middle East Reaction: Positive but Muted
Marc J. Sievers, Director, AJC Abu Dhabi: The Sidney Lerner Center for Arab-Jewish Understanding.
From my Abu Dhabi vantage point, the regional reaction to the agreement between Hamas and Israel on step one of President Trump’s peace plan is positive but muted. This reflects an understanding that much can still go wrong, especially with the next stage of disarming Hamas and removing them from Gaza as a governing force. In Egypt, there is excitement about President Trump’s plans to attend the signing ceremony and President Sisi’s role in achieving the agreement. Otherwise, the mood is cautious optimism and relief, clouded by awareness of the complexity of the next steps.
Arab Patience with Hamas Has Run Out
It has been evident for months that the region was losing patience with Hamas. The UAE was the first to state publicly that Hamas must release the hostages, disarm, and give up control of Gaza, a position now shared by Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan, Bahrain, Qatar, Morocco, and Turkey. Saudi Arabia, working with French President Macron, sought to turn this into global recognition of a Palestinian state, but was preempted by Israel’s strike on Hamas leaders in Doha and President Trump’s decision to put forth his own plan.
Qatar’s Dual Role Collapses
The Israeli strike had a massive effect on Qatar’s leadership, turning its dual role with Hamas from asset to liability. As Trump presented his 20-point plan, Hamas lost the backing of Qatar and Turkey. Under military pressure and isolation, Hamas agreed to release all hostages in return for prisoner releases, but not to disarm or relinquish power.
Bottom Line
For now, Hamas’ regional standing has collapsed.
From Hope to Hard Choices: Israel Navigates Gaza Ceasefire and Next Steps
Lt. Col. (res.) Avital Liebovich, AJC Jerusalem Director
Already very early in the morning, Hostage Square in Tel Aviv was flooded with Israelis dancing and singing, overjoyed by the news. Both Israeli and American flags were visible. People in everyday settings, like supermarkets, expressed hope and optimism. Media coverage highlights emotional interviews with hostage families, reflecting gratitude and relief. In the coming days, the nation will watch closely as hostages are returned, beginning the collective healing process. Palestinians, meanwhile, face choices about future leadership—whether to continue with Hamas or pursue a more pragmatic path. Even after the war in Gaza ends, additional active fronts—Iran, Lebanon, Syria, Houthis—remain.
Next Phases of Withdrawal
If the agreement proceeds, two more IDF withdrawal phases will create a security perimeter around Gaza. Hamas has refused to disarm; proposals for transferring heavy weapons to Egypt while keeping rifles are rejected by Israel. The Trump plan envisions an international governance mechanism with Palestinian participation, which Hamas opposes. Egyptian officials have indicated they will not participate in governance if Hamas remains in power.
Political and Operational Challenges for Israel
Israel’s next elections are scheduled for October 2026, but coalition shifts could trigger early elections. Hamas is expected to release living hostages, but uncertainty remains over the dead. Any breakdown in later phases could test Israel’s international legitimacy and cost lives. Israel demands full demilitarization of Gaza, but enforcement is unclear—whether by Palestinians, Arab states, the U.S., or Israel. Drone factories and rocket production cannot remain.
How Israel is Preparing
Security preparations are high, as Hamas seeks a “victory picture,” including attempted attacks on IDF outposts. Hospitals and Red Cross protocols are in place for hostages’ medical needs, including controlled food and secluded recovery areas. Israel monitors all developments carefully to ensure hostages’ safety and maintain readiness for next steps.
The Power of Reunion
In just a few hours, the world will watch as Israeli hostages are reunited with their families after an agonizing 738 days. The power—and heartbreak—of this moment cannot be overstated, for Israel and for Jewish communities around the world. The road to this day has been marked by unimaginable pain, devastation, and countless unexpected turns. Yet, amid the failures that led to October 7 and the immense personal losses that followed, the Middle East we see today is not the same as it was two years ago. There is now a fragile and viable process for hope to achieve a better tomorrow.
Trump’s Role and the Stakes
Benjamin Rogers, Deputy Director, AJC Center for a New Middle East.
President Trump’s unconventional approach forced Israel and key Arab states to align in unprecedented ways. Continued U.S. leadership is vital. The 20-Point Plan is more than a roadmap to end the Gaza war—it is the most realistic framework for advancing Israeli-Arab peace, creating engagement opportunities, and countering Hamas’ ideology through a united alliance of Israelis and Arabs committed to peace, security, and prosperity.
The Beginning of a Process
This is not the end, only the beginning. Disarming and dismantling Hamas, establishing a new system of governance in Gaza, advancing a renewed political process, and deepening normalization between Israel and the Arab world are monumental challenges. Success demands steadfast commitment from the United States, Israel, Arab and Muslim nations, and the wider international community. Diplomacy must be paired with civil society engagement and economic cooperation to build trust, counter radicalization, and deliver tangible benefits to citizens.
Arab Engagement Matters
The Arab world must recognize its agency. Israeli trust has been shattered; gestures such as publishing op-eds in Hebrew or visiting Israel to speak directly to citizens could have profound impact. Direct engagement with the Israeli public will be critical to sustaining momentum and rebuilding confidence when obstacles arise.
Europe Reacts: Broad Support, Lingering Unease
Anne-Sophie Sebban-Bécache, AJC Vice President Europe.
Across Europe, support is broadly positive for the ceasefire–hostages–aid core of Trump’s plan. Not without some unease, France has sought to assume a leading role, trying to align the U.S. proposal with the Franco-Saudi initiative that spurred additional unilateral recognitions of Palestine at this year’s UNGA and culminated in the controversial New York Declaration in July. At a Paris meeting this week, European and Arab leaders held “parallel” discussions on implementing the U.S. plan. France emphasized the New York Declaration’s principles, which—unlike the U.S. plan—place the two-state solution at the center, assign the UN a role in phase two of the U.S.-backed deal, and envision Gaza governance by the Palestinian Authority. While the U.S. blueprint is more cautious on these points, there is consensus that defining later phases should not jeopardize phase one, which, for the first time, offers a credible path to releasing all hostages and ending the war in Gaza.
Europe’s Postwar Role: Limited but Symbolic
France continues to seek a leading diplomatic role in Europe on conflict resolution and postwar planning, but it is unlikely to play a decisive role: it has lost Israel’s trust, and Washington does not treat Paris as a central interlocutor. The E3—France, Germany, and the U.K.—want a say in Gaza’s governance and are pushing for a seat on the President Trump-led peace board, which already includes former U.K. Prime Minister Tony Blair. European capitals have also signaled readiness to back an interim peacekeeping force and expand humanitarian and reconstruction funding.
Shifting Politics and Fading Masks
Public reactions in Europe reveal shifting dynamics. Many on the far left and among self-styled peace activists—who once demanded a ceasefire daily—are now strikingly silent as that ceasefire becomes real. As the war ends, their silence exposes those who have fueled anti-Jewish hostility under the guise of activism. The deal could also reset Israel–Europe relations: momentum for EU sanctions on Israel has faded, Germany is poised to lift its arms embargo, and there may be a new opportunity for a fairer assessment of Israel’s conduct and security rationale in Gaza.
Latin America Sends Cautious Signals
Dina Siegal Vann, Director of AJC's Arthur and Rochelle Belfer Institute for Latino and Latin American Affairs (BILLA).
Few Latin American governments have made prominent statements so far, despite the Gaza crisis being heavily instrumentalized by populist governments, such as those in Colombia, Chile, and Brazil, to express disagreement with the U.S. and score political points at home.
So far, the clear signal is caution: some protests, some skepticism, but no large chorus of explicit endorsement. However, we expect that friendly governments, which have shown moral clarity since October 7th, will raise their voices to support the agreement in all its phases. These include Argentina, Paraguay, Ecuador, Panama, Costa Rica, and the Dominican Republic.
Antisemitism Remains a Concern
Since October 7, Latin America, Spain, and Portugal have experienced a meteoric rise—not just in anti-Israel attitudes but also in mostly non-violent antisemitic incidents and rhetoric, particularly in social media. Most anti-Israel government pronouncements and actions from Ibero-American countries have fueled these attitudes. While the U.S.-backed deal may reduce animosity toward Israel and Jewish communities and restore recognition of the Jewish State’s positive contributions, ongoing disinformation campaigns and local activity supported by Iranian, Russian, and other anti-U.S. actors continue to sow discord and threaten the well-being of Jewish communities.
Asia-Pacific Welcomes Gaza Ceasefire, Poised to Rebuild and Expand Ties
Nissim Reuben, Assistant Director of AJC’s Asia Pacific Institute (API).
Across the Asia-Pacific, governments broadly welcomed the U.S.-brokered Israel-Hamas ceasefire as a long-awaited step toward peace. Australia and New Zealand hailed the deal as a “step toward peace” and a “watershed” moment, while India and Japan praised President Trump’s leadership, with Japan pledging to help rebuild Gaza.
Hours after the Israel-Hamas acceptance was announced, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi tweeted, "Called my friend, Prime Minister Netanyahu, to congratulate him on the progress made under President Trump’s Gaza peace plan."
Thailand focused on the fate of its citizens held hostage, including the body of Sonthaya Akrasri and Sudthisak Rinthalak. China called for a “lasting and comprehensive” ceasefire to ease the humanitarian crisis. Indonesia and Malaysia described the deal as a “meaningful step” and “semblance of hope,” Pakistan called it a “historic opportunity,” and Bangladesh and Nepal offered peacekeepers and urged the release of hostages, including Nepali national Bipin Joshi.
Asia-Pacific Poised to Help Rebuild, Expand Relations
President Trump has called on Indonesia to contribute peacekeepers to the Gaza Stabilization Force, while Bangladesh has already offered troops to support the mission.
Malaysia remains unwilling to engage with Israel, but Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto’s call to guarantee Israel’s security—and his use of “Shalom” in his remarks—suggest a readiness to support future U.S.-led peace efforts.
While it is widely speculated that Indonesia will be among the next countries to sign on to the Abraham Accords once Middle East Peace initiatives gather momentum, its recent ban on Israeli athletes from the World Gymnastics Championships highlights the strong domestic resistance to formal engagement with Israel.
Fighting Antisemitism, Supporting Jewish Communities
While we might not see an immediate drop in antisemitism in countries such as Malaysia, Indonesia, Bangladesh, and Pakistan, it is also uncertain whether protests against Israel—and potential attacks on Jewish communities in Australia and New Zealand—will decrease.
AJC CEO Ted Deutch recently visited Australia, meeting with leaders in the Foreign Ministry, the Prime Minister’s office, and Parliament, telling them we expect them to lead and never let antisemitism become normalized.
