December 2, 2024
Donald Trump's re-election has made waves across the world, with the potential to significantly realign alliances, interests, and more. We asked AJC experts stationed around the world for their insight on how a second Trump administration may impact key issues such as combating antisemitism, global support for Israel, expanding the Abraham Accords, and countering the Iranian regime.
The European Perspective: Antisemitism, Iran, NATO, democracy, and Ukraine
Paris-based Managing Director of AJC Europe Simone Rodan-Benzaquen says that Trump’s reelection is coming at a time when Europe needs to strengthen its resolve to ensure a safe future for Jewish communities and preserve democratic values.
Future of democracy: The erosion of democratic norms across several European countries, coupled with Trump’s equivocal stance toward some authoritarian regimes casts doubt on how the U.S. will support democracy on the continent, said Simone Rodan-Benzaquen.
Trade and economic policies are expected to become central points of friction, reigniting calls for greater unity and strategic sovereignty within Europe, especially in France and Germany, where leaders emphasize the need to counterbalance an anticipated decline in U.S. collaboration.
By contrast, more Euro-skeptical leaders, such as Viktor Orbán in Hungary, have welcomed Trump’s victory, viewing it as an opportunity to advance their agendas within a less cohesive European framework.
Fighting antisemitism: Trump’s strong expressions of support for Israel provide comfort to many in European Jewish communities. Many see his victory as an opportunity to combat rising antisemitism, particularly from far-left circles that have gained influence across the continent, Rodan-Benzaquen said.
Countering Iran: Seeking points of commonality to better work with the Trump administration, Rodan-Benzaquen said, France, Germany, and the United Kingdom have expressed a willingness to adopt a tougher stance on Iran that would dovetail with the President-elect’s priorities, a position for which AJC Europe has long advocated.
Ukraine: As the first Jewish organization to back the restoration of Ukraine's independence in 1991, AJC is committed to the country's territorial integrity, said Daniel Schwammenthal, Director of the AJC’s Brussels-based Transatlantic Institute (TAI). Trump’s designated National Security Advisor, Michael Waltz, recently noted in The Economist that the administration plans to use economic pressure and the threat of increased military aid to push Russia toward negotiating peace. The key issue, according to Schwammenthal, will be what security assurances the U.S., Europe, and NATO can provide to protect Ukraine and other neighbors from future Russian aggression.
NATO: While critics argue that Trump’s past rhetoric questioning NATO’s mutual defense clause weakened the alliance, Schwammenthal pointed out that Trump’s pressure did lead to higher defense investment among European allies. Although Trump was largely silent on NATO during his latest campaign, he is expected to push for more balanced burden-sharing, especially as the U.S. shifts focus to domestic priorities and countering China.
The Middle East Perspective: A Deal with Saudi Arabia?
The landmark achievement of the first Trump Administration was President Trump’s ability to successfully broker peace treaties between Israel and the Arab countries of the UAE, Bahrain, and Morocco.
Much has changed since the September 2020 signing of the Abraham Accords, said Benjamin Rogers, AJC’s Director for Middle East and North Africa Initiatives. AJC has since opened AJC Abu Dhabi: The Sidney Lerner Center for Arab-Jewish Understanding and the Center for a New Middle East, an initiative to bolster the organization’s decades of work to relationships throughout the Middle East.
There are high hopes that a second Trump Administration will once again focus on brokering Arab-Israeli peace - with all eyes now on Saudi Arabia.
Strengthening U.S.-Israel Relations
In addition to the Accords, the first Trump Administration undertook major initiatives to deepen U.S.-Israel ties, including the moving of the U.S. embassy to Jerusalem and recognizing Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights. Rogers says additional shows of support to Israel as it defends against Iran and its terror proxies on seven fronts are expected, including the reversal of Biden-era curtailments of specific kinds of munitions.
Foreign aid: When it comes to U.S. security aid for Israel, a key question remains whether the Jewish state, as a U.S. strategic partner, will be exempt should Trump administration policy reflect the President-elect’s campaign rhetoric on foreign aid: favoring “loans” over “grants,” said AJC’s Jerusalem Director Avital Leibovich. Under the Foreign Military Financing (FMF) program, the U.S. has provided Israel with $3.3 billion annually, plus $500 million for missile defense programs, as outlined in a 10-year Memorandum of Understanding (MOU). This MOU will come up for renewal in 2028 during Trump’s presidency.
A harder line on Iran: The second Trump Administration will be assuming the presidency during one of the most complex times in modern Middle East history. During his previous term, President Trump faced criticism for withdrawing from the JCPOA without a clear alternative, instead favoring a “maximum pressure” approach. The second Trump Administration will include central figures such as National Security Adviser Michael Waltz and Secretary of State Marco Rubio, both of whom have long advocated for a more hardline approach against the Iranian regime, Rogers said.
In the aftermath of October 7, he added, countering the Iranian threat has become more critical.
Rogers also pointed out, as most may conclude, that the Iranian regime’s recent assassination attempts on President Trump will also likely influence his administration’s policies toward Iran.
Among Israeli leaders, there is an expectation that Trump will return to a policy of subjecting the Iranian regime to crippling economic sanctions, said Leibovich. Leibovich also says that Trump’s return to the presidency may lead to joint U.S.-Israel military efforts against Iran, with possibilities ranging from efforts aimed at neutralizing nuclear or ballistic threats to shattering the Iran-led Shiite axis in the region.
The Latin American Perspective: Potential Shifts Away from Iran, Toward Israel
Latin American Jewish communities continue to be concerned about the anti-Israel bent of some leftist and populist regimes that have broken relations with Israel since the horrors of the October 7 terror attacks. The new Trump administration is expected to try to reverse these anti-Israel trends, said Dina Siegel Vann, the founding Director of AJC's Arthur and Rochelle Belfer Institute for Latino and Latin American Affairs (BILLA).
Rubio’s influence: Trump’s nomination of Senator Marco Rubio as Secretary of State could signal increased attention to Latin America. Known as the “Latin American whisperer” during Trump’s previous term, Rubio has spent time in the Senate focused on countering anti-democratic nations like Cuba, Venezuela, and Nicaragua.
Antisemitism and Iran’s shadow: Trump’s first administration focused on the danger posed by Iran’s efforts to strengthen ties with Latin American nations. For example, the previous Trump administration pressured Argentina to declare Iran’s terror proxy Hezbollah a terrorist organization. Until then, there had been no sense of urgency, despite two deadly terrorist attacks by the group nearly 30 years earlier.
The new Trump administration is likely to expand on those efforts.
Leaders on edge: Meanwhile, other leaders have reasons to be nervous based on actions by the previous administration and promises that Trump made on the campaign trail. In 2019, Trump tried to remove Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. Mexico’s President Claudia Sheinbaum could face challenges related to Trump’s policies on immigration, trade, and security. Relations with Colombia might sour over differing stances on Israel and environmental policies.
The Asia Pacific Perspective
Expanding the Abraham Accords: Trump’s transactional approach could help expand the Abraham Accords to include Indonesia, said Shira Loewenberg, Director of AJC's Asia Pacific Institute (API). President Prabowo Subianto Djojohadikusumo is similarly transactional, she said, and may see a benefit to recognizing Israel or paving the way toward that recognition with economic liaison offices in each country.
Defending Democracy: However, if Trump does abandon NATO and U.S. allies in Europe, it will send a dangerous signal to nations in the Asia Pacific region, she said.
Democratic Taiwan has been governed independently since 1949, but China has long sought to bring it under the rule of the Communist Republic. China may interpret any of Trump’s isolationist moves in Europe as an opportunity to “unify” Taiwan with mainland China, using force if necessary, confident that the U.S. will not interfere.
Likewise, Loewenberg noted that U.S. allies like the Philippines, South Korea, and Japan could question America’s commitment to their defense against Chinese aggression as well. This erosion of trust could harm U.S. economic and political interests in the region and undermine regional and global stability.
China’s growing influence: If U.S. leadership does not signal an intent to uphold global norms like the rule of law and freedom of navigation, China may fill the vacuum, potentially boosting other adversaries of Western democracies, including Russia, Iran, and North Korea, Loewenberg said.
