Articles by Anne Dreazen

The Middle East is no longer peripheral to U.S.-China relations. Energy security, maritime trade, sanctions enforcement, technology competition, and regional integration increasingly tie the future of the Middle East to the trajectory of great-power rivalry.

Militarily, escalation risks a broader regional war with potentially diminishing returns—drawing in Hezbollah, disrupting global energy markets through the Strait of Hormuz, and stretching U.S. assets across multiple theaters. Economically, the shock to oil markets is already evident even under current conditions. Politically, a prolonged war would be difficult to sustain domestically and internationally.

The direct talks and ceasefire announced last week between Israel and Lebanon present a historic opportunity for welcome de-escalation and a dramatically improved relationship between the two countries; however, as long as Hezbollah retains its weapons, along with the power to decide when war begins and ends, no agreement between the two governments will hold.

The latest round of U.S.-Iran negotiations in Islamabad ended without agreement. That outcome is disappointing, but not surprising. The gaps between the two sides were always going to be difficult to bridge, particularly on the two issues that matter most: Iran’s stockpile of highly enriched uranium and the status of the Strait of Hormuz.

The ceasefire announced this week between the United States and Iran is less a resolution than a pause.